Morning News – 11/01/2021

11th January 2021

6620418Good morning…

Although a very good day for the ratings yesterday…

Unfortunately, our Place Profits selection came 4th.

Still, we are still in profit for January 2021 and,

Long term, the strike rate always balances out.

Read More about Morning News – 11/01/2021

Morning News – 09/01/2021

9th January 2021

6620418Good morning…

Well, it had to happen.

We’ve had our first loser for Place Profits.

The good news is that we’re still in profit for the month.

I never expected Place Profits to have a 100% strike rate but…

A loser still hurts.

I am planning to take the weekend off but,

I am doing some work for one member (a potential Dutching strategy based upon R8) and this will continue over the weekend.

Once we are both happy with the strategy, I will then share it with you.

Read More about Morning News – 09/01/2021

Morning News – 08/01/2021

8th January 2021

6620418Good morning…

I did promise myself…

That I wasn’t going to prattle on about Place Profits today but,

I’m afraid that I’m going to have to do so.

Now, it’s not so much the results but, more a case of being so excited bout the R8 ratings that they are based upon.

The more I delve into my Master (win) spreadsheet, the opportunities I can see.

And not just for place betting but also for Win betting and Dutching.

Having said that.

Place Profits had 2 selections yesterday (from the new R8 based strategy) and both were placed.

That means that, over the last week (since the new strategy has been operational) there have been 9 selections,

One of which was a non-runner (not much I can do about that) and…

The other 8 have been successful place selections.

So, we’re kind of running at a 100% strike rate, to date.

And I’m not really sure how I can improve on that.

On another note…

My code seems to be having problem when there are abandoned meetings.

This only shows up with the Early Bird Preview ratings.

Sometimes the ratings get sent out without any races.

When this happens, don’t worry;

I will fix the problem and send out the full ratings as soon as I can.

Read More about Morning News – 08/01/2021

Morning News – 07/01/2021

7th January 2021

6620418Good morning…

A busy day, yesterday…

Where a lot of my time was spent answering questions about Place Profits.

Today I shall be coming up with a staking plan similar to the Annuity Plan but with a range of take out options and,

Based upon the 5 years of data that I based the new Place Profits strategy on.

Read More about Morning News – 07/01/2021

Morning News – 06/01/2021

6th January 2021

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday there were 2 place profits selections.

Both came third in races that paid 3 places.

That means that…

Since the 1st of January we have had 7 selections over 5 days.

One of those was a non-runner and the other 6 have either won or been placed.

And, the average prices paid are higher than for the previous system.

Now, I do understand that I am waffling on quite a bit about place profits at the moment but,

Of all the thing (Ratings related) that I am excited about at the moment, it’s high strike rate place betting strategies that are exciting me the most.

Read More about Morning News – 06/01/2021

Morning News – 05/01/2021

5th January 2021

6620418Good morning…

Have you ever had one of those days when…

Everything that you attempt,

Goes horribly wrong.

Yesterday was that day for me.

I never could get the hang of Mondays.

I hope that today goes better; I certainly have plenty to do.

Read More about Morning News – 05/01/2021

Morning News – 04/01/2021

4th January 2021

6620418Good morning…

Sadly, our only Place Profits selection yesterday….

Was a non-runner.

I am still looking into which race types,

That we can expect winners (rather than just place winners) from these selections.

I am also looking into other ways of using the R8 (when a horse is top rated on Focus Ratings R4 and Advance Ratings) selections.

There seem to be numerous opportunities.

Read More about Morning News – 04/01/2021

Morning News – 03/01/2021

3rd January 2021

6620418Good morning…

Another good day for the new system at

3 selections and all 3 won (and obviously won the place.)

It’s kind of interesting to me (although I’m aware that it’s early days) but over the last 2 days, all 4 of our new selections have actually won their races.

So, I guess that I’ll be looking into that later on today.

Also, GE (a member) mentioned that sometimes it’s better to bet on the 2nd rated horse and, after some thinking (it’s weird what comes into your mind at 2am in the morning, isn’t it?), I think that there is some value in this.

Imagine a race where the top rated horse is a really great horse like Kauto Star (or Hurricane Fly), the second rated horse is a decent horse and the third rated horse is Dennis the Donkey (sometimes called Denis the Three Legged Donkey by unhappy punters.)

Now Kauto Star is going to win that race but, the starting price is so low that it may not be worth win backing the horse; in any case it would be silly to place back the horse if you are taking the all the risk just to see it get placed at 1.03.

As all the money is, quite rightly, on Kauto Star, Speedy Simon should have a pretty good price and, thus, be a value place bet.

So, I guess that GE could be right and I’m going to do some work on identifying those races.

If I can do so, and decide to share the resulting selections, then these will be kept separate from the new system and the old one.

I’ll let you know how I get on.

Read More about Morning News – 03/01/2021

Morning News – 02/01/2021

2nd January 2021

6620418Good morning…

It seems that the link to the new R8 ratings working fine yesterday.

However, having taken a good look at the Focus Ratings morning ratings email…

I have decided that it’s time to spruce it up a bit.

So, if over the next week or so, it starts to look different,

Don’t worry; it’ll have all the same links, in pretty much the same places – it’ll just look slightly different.

On another point…

Yesterday was the first day for the new Place Profits system.

We had one selection; Southwell – 15:00 – Silent Queen

Silent Queen won at 2.11 BSP = Betfair paid 1.44 for the place.


Click on the image to see it full size.

That’s now 25 winning place bets from the last 28 selections.

That equates to an 89.28% strike rate.

In fact, yesterday was a great day all round…

Taking the abandoned meeting into account,

Investment Betting, Advance Ratings Sys 1 and EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold all had a 100% strike rate.

Read More about Morning News – 02/01/2021

Morning News – 01/01/2021

1st January 2021

6620418Good morning…

If all goes well…

There will be a new link at the top of the ratings email.

This link points to the PDF file that shows those horses that are both top rated on Focus Ratings (R4) and also on Advance Ratings.

I am calling these selections R8.

I spent a lot of time yesterday…

Working on potential uses for these ratings.

I have found one rather sweet system that yields a 34.84% strike rate with a POI of 27.56%

I need to do the losing run analysis today but it may be a decent upgrade to our current Investment Betting selections.

I will let you know before I make any changes.

Read More about Morning News – 01/01/2021

Morning News – 31/12/2020

31st December 2020

6620418Good morning…

I spent much of yesterday looking at those horses that are top on Focus Ratings (R4) and also top on Advance Ratings but…

From a Win Backing point of view.

You can check the spreadsheet which is available at…

1). The first tab shows all top rated (on both, independent ratings.)

Well, almost; I have only used those races where there are 5 runners or more. This makes sense for Place Betting but, for Win Backing, the prices paid for the smaller field races don’t, in my opinion, outweigh the risks.

I have also removed those horses that didn’t finish their last race.

There is no scientific reason for this but, by doing so, the overall strike rate improves.

I can’t find any evidence that a horse that fell in its last race in going to fall in the next race (or pull up or run off) but…

I do get the feeling that they are raced less hard than they would have been had they finished their last race.

2). The second tab shows the performance for individual race types.

3). The third tab shows the same data but I have removed the unprofitable race types. Doing this gives a 32.77% strike rate and a 6.72% POI (to BSP with 2% conmission removed) and an average of 7.2 races a day.

However, if you scroll down you will see that I have refined these races types to give 2,7 races a day with a strike rate of 36.56% and a POI of 14.63%. Scroll even further down and you;ll see that I have further refined the race type to give us 5 races a week but with a strike rate of 41.35% and a POI of 30.48%

4). The next three tabs do exactly the same thing but only for those races where the top rated horse has a Confidence of 130% or higher.

The last two tabs show what happens if you include Class as a differentiator.

As you will see, using these selections, it is relatively easy to come up with profitable systems.

Today I shall write the code to generate a PDF (on a daily basis) showing those horses that are top rated on both Focus Ratings (R4) and Advance Ratings.

Read More about Morning News – 31/12/2020

Morning News – 30/12/2020

30th December 2020

6620418Good morning…

I spent most of yesterday working on the new strategy for Place Profits.

I have written a post about that strategy – you can read that here…

That post contains a link to the supporting spreadsheet – you can download that here…

Now, this strategy is important to me not just for but, also as a basis for some Win Betting strategies.

The base spreadsheet made be downloaded here…

If there is enough interest, I can produce a PDF (and a CSV) on a daily basis, showing those horses which are top rated on both Focus Ratings (R4) and Advance Ratings.

Read More about Morning News – 30/12/2020

Morning News – 29/12/2020

29th December 2020

6620418Good morning…

I think that, yesterday…

I managed to break the back of using those top rated horses on both Focus Ratings R4 and Advance Ratings,

To come up with a new place betting strategy for Place

In fact, I have come up with three strategies which I believe will happily work together to provide a decent return.

I will write an article explaining these strategies but, as an example, the one that I am currently writing up is to place bet qualifying top rated horses in 5, 8, and 16 (handicap) runner races for selected race types.

This gives a decent amount of higher priced winners and, overall, gives a 77.17% strike rate and a 16.90% profit on stakes.

I am going through the races one by one to work out longest losing run and lowest draw down but…

Visually it looks pretty good.

Read More about Morning News – 29/12/2020

Morning News – 28/12/2020

28th December 2020

6620418Good morning…

After a very enjoyable Christmas…

It’s back to work with a vengeance for me today.

I’ll be carrying on the work that I started before Christmas…

Studying what happens when a horse is top rated on Focus Ratings R4 and also top rated on Advance Ratings.

Read More about Morning News – 28/12/2020

Morning News

24th December 2020

christmas01Good morning…

Just a quick post to wish you all a merry Christmas and a happy new year.

I would like to thank all of you for your support and ideas over the last year.

Whilst working on a review of the current strategy for Place Profits, I have come across something very interesting and I shall be spending some of my time, over the next few days, investigation what happens when a top rated horse is top rated on both Focus Ratings (R4) and Advance Ratings.

So far, the results look almost too good to be true.

However, I imagine that, as well as that, there will be plenty of eating and drinking to do.

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