Morning News

2nd April 2020

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, not such a great day for the ratings yesterday but…

That happens from time to time.

In the long run the ratings are blindly profitable so any bad days should put into perspective.

I have been working on some strategies to best profit from the Hong Kong ratings and should be able to update you on my findings over the weekend.

I have also been looking at draw bias at Happy Valley…

That has given me some interesting things to think about.

Once again, once I have my data in some sort of presentable order, I’ll publish it for you to see.

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Morning News

1st April 2020

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, we have some racing today…

8 races at Sha Tin.

You can bet on Hong Kong racing by using the Betfair sportsbook.

Of the traditional bookies, UniBet.com probably has the cleanest (in my opinion) interface.

I’m in a bit of an email backlog at the moment;

It’s like someone has put a big sign up on the internet – a sign that says…“Stop what you’re doing, no matter what you’re doing, stop right now and…

Email Keith!”

I am gradually catching up though so please be patient.

The links to today’s rating for Sha Tin are…

Ratings in PDF format (top 3 rated horses.)

Ratings in PDF format (all horses.)

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Morning News

31st March 2020

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I have been doing some work on trying to filter the Compass Ratings selections to see if a more systematic approach can be created to better profit from them.

As I mentioned yesterday, one member bet on the 4 races on Sunday where the CPR (Compass Rating) of the top rated horse was 2.0 or more.

3 of those 4 horses won.

Another Place Profits member mentioned that, if you bet on any top rated horse with a CPR of 2.0 or more in races where no other horse has a CPR of 2.0 or more, then you get a 100% strike rate.

He must have spent hours going through the spreadsheet determining that.

Andy C. If you’re ever in my part of back of beyond Brittany, I’ll buy you a beer (or two!)

Personally, I think that Confidence (the percentage difference between the CPR of the top rated horse and that of the second rated horse) is going to play a major part – that’s what I’ll be working on today.

I have looked at the performance of the top rated horse dependent on its CPR.

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Morning News

30th March 2020

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

It is nice to have some results to waffle about.

We got 3 top rated winners from yesterday’s 10 races at Sha Tin.

The prices weren’t good but we did get the forecast in Race 7 (the 9:10 race) – the Quinella (forecast) paid 10.50.

One of the members mentioned that he only bet on the 4 races yesterday where the CPR (Compass Rating) was 2.0 or greater…

3 of those 4 top rated horses won.

A 75% strike rate isn’t such a bad start for a strategy.

That might be an angle to look at and I’ll do some analysis to find the optimal CPR to use.

Another member noticed that certain jockeys were more successful than others.

It seems that, in Hong Kong, there are some superstar jockeys; they get the best rides. Thus you put a talented jockey on a very good horse and, of course, they’re going to win. Obviously, the local Chinese know this and, thus, prices will be low.

I’ll be spending this week adding content to CompassRatings.com and trying to come up with strategies and angles to help us benefit from the ratings. – I’ll update you, every morning, with links to the additions.

I should be able to get Wednesday’s ratings out this afternoon or, tomorrow morning at the latest.

If you have any suggestions or requests for Compass Ratings, please let me know.

I imagine that, once GB and Irish racing comes back, we might still end up using Hong Kong racing twice a week as another source of potential income – think of it as high quality flat turf racing even if its happening 8,000 miles away.

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Morning News

29th March 2020

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Thank you for your feedback on yesterday’s Morning News.

Most of it, I have to say…

Was about the Genie joke rather than horse racing stuff.

Based upon the horse racing stuff that was discussed, I shall be adding a confidence column to the Compass Ratings PDFs – that sort of makes sense to me and I can’t, for the life of me, think why I didn’t do that in the first place.

After a very busy week, today is a day off for me.

I’m not sure what I’ll be getting up to (under the current circumstances) but I do have a horrible feeling that…

Housework beckons!

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Morning News

28th March 2020

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

I’ve literally been up nearly all night getting Compass Ratings finished.

I haven’t got round to writing the code to send out the ratings yet so I have attached them here.

I have left the ratings as simple as possible but, if I’m missing any vital data that you’d like to see…

Let me know.

There’s plenty of space for more columns.

I have done some historical analysis of all 1838 races from the 1st of January 2018 up until (and including) last Wednesday’s meeting at Happy Valley.

The details are shown below.

2020-03-28--1585368822_855x291_scrot

Click on the image to see it full size.

As you can see…

The ratings appear to be blindly profitable for the top rated horse.

I’ve manually audited the first 3 months and it all looks good.

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Morning News

27th March 2020

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Following yesterday’s Morning News I’ve received a lot of feedback from you.

Most of you seem to be interested in the additional PDF (to be sent out with the normal Early Bird Ratings email) which will show the following…

1). Horses which have changed in class since their last race.

2). Horses which have changed in trainer since their last race.

3). Jockeys who have changed in country since their last race (sometimes known as raiders.

4). Horse Going Form. Basically this will show the horse’s win/place performance in each of the (potential) 15 goings and produce a sort of rating based upon today’s going compared to that horse’s historic performance over that going.

I’ll be working on this next week and will update as soon as I’ve got some results.

I’ve also had a number of conversations with an Australian friend and am starting to find a suitable data source for Australian ratings.

These will be primarily for the Australian market but I’m sure that you won’t mind additional ratings whilst GB and Irish racing is at a halt.

And, on a totally non horse racing note…

SDC10020Yesterday, in my little village in rural Brittany, the Thursday morning market was held but it was only about a quarter of the normal size.

And, the Gendarmes were there to ensure that people kept their distance from each other.

After the market one poor lad was stopped by the Gendarmes and found not to have his attestation (the form we have to download from the government website, print out and sign if we wish to go out.)

Click on the images if you want to see them full size.

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Morning News – an Update…

26th March 2020

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Whilst GB and Irish racing are having a break, I have been working on a new project so that I can give you some racing during this dry period.

Racing is still going on behind closed doors in Hong Kong and Australia.

I am working on a ratings system for Hong Kong racing – Compass Ratings.

Compass Ratings uses the same magic formula that I created for AdvanceRatings.com

If all goes well, I should have the last code module finished, installed and tested by about 2pm this afternoon.

Once that is done I will be able to produce ratings for the two meetings a week that are held at Sha Tin and Happy Valley.

What does this mean for you?

Well, as soon as I’ve got the website tidied up I will create free memberships for each and every Early Bird Ratings member.

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Morning News

19th November 2018

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, yesterday one of our 2 Diamonds and Gold selections was a non-runner and the other pulled up.

And, for the normal ratings, it was a decent enough day.

There were 26 rated races yesterday.

For 2 of them, the top rated horse was a non-runner.

From the remaining 24 races, 6 were won by a top rated horse.

This equates to a strike rate of 25%

40.25 points (to ISP) were returned to the 24 points staked.

This equates to a POI (Profit on Investment) of 67.71%

This was largely helped by Mortens Leam, our top rated horse in the 15:50 at Fontwell, who did the decent thing an won at 18/1 ISP (30.0 BSP.)

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Morning News

18th November 2018

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, yesterday we got 1 win from our 4 Diamonds and Gold selections (there was 1 non-runner.)

However, it did come in at 13/2

We had 7.5 points returned to the 4 points staked (to ISP.)

This makes it 5 winning days from the last 6.

And, for the normal ratings as well, it was a decent enough day.

There were 40 rated races yesterday.

For 2 of them, the top rated horse was a non-runner.

From the remaining races, 7 were won by a top rated horse.

This equates to a strike rate of 18.42%

24.76 points (to ISP) were returned to the 38 points staked.

This equates to a POI (Profit on Investment) of -34.84%

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Morning News

17th November 2018

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, yesterday we managed 2 wins from our 5 Diamonds and Gold selections.

That equates to a 40% strike rate.

We had 4.86 points returned to the 5 points staked (to ISP.)

And, for the normal ratings as well, it was a decent enough day.

There were 35 rated races yesterday.

From those races, 7 were won by a top rated horse.

This equates to a strike rate of 20%

22.61 points (to ISP) were returned to the 35 points staked.

This equates to a POI (Profit on Investment) of -35.40%

19 of the 35 races (and all 4 of the first 4 races) were won by a top three rated horse – this has to be good news for those of you who enjoy dutching.

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Morning News

16th November 2018

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Well, yesterday we managed 2 wins from our 3 Diamonds and Gold selections.

That equates to a 66.66% strike rate.

We had 4.125 points returned to the 3 points staked (to ISP.)

That gives us a 36.83% POI (profit on investment) and the 4th profitable day in a row.

And, for the normal ratings as well, it was a very nice day.

There were 43 rated races yesterday.

For two of those races, the top rated horse was a non-runner.

From the remaining 41 races, 14 were won by a top rated horse.

This equates to a strike rate of 34.15%

36.395 points (to ISP) were returned to the 41 points staked.

This equates to a POI (Profit on Investment) of -11.23%

The highlight of the day has to be the 13:40 at Southwell where Arzaak, our top rated horse, won at 12/1 ISP (16.0 BSP.)

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Morning News

15th November 2018

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

Once again, we made a very small profit with Diamonds and Gold selections yesterday.

But that does mean that we have made a profit for the last three days in a row.

And, for the normal ratings as well, it was a reasonable enough day.

There were 28 rated races yesterday.

From those races, 5 were won by a top rated horse.

This equates to a strike rate of 17.85%

19.15 points (to ISP) were returned to the 28 points staked.

This equates to a POI (Profit on Investment) of -31.61%

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Morning News

14th November 2018

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

We made a very small profit with Diamonds and Gold selections yesterday.

And, for the normal ratings as well, it was a decent enough day.

There were 22 rated races yesterday.

In 6 of those races, either the top rated horse was a non-runner or the race was abandoned.

From the remaining 16 races, 4 were won by a top rated horse.

This equates to a strike rate of 25%

14.75 points (to ISP) were returned to the 16 points staked.

This equates to a POI (Profit on Investment) of -7.81%

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Morning News

13th November 2018

focus-ratings-mornoing newsGood morning…

One of our two Diamonds and Gold selections won yesterday.

That gave us a 50% strike rate and a 125% profit on stakes (to ISP.)

However, for the normal ratings as well, it was a good day.

There were 25 rated races yesterday.

In 2 of those races, the top rated horse was a non-runner.

From the remaining 23 races, 8 were won by a top rated horse.

This equates to a strike rate of 34.78%

34.54 points (to ISP) were returned to the 23 points staked.

This equates to a POI (Profit on Investment) of 50.17%

Of course, this was largely helped by Plazon, our 8/1 (10.34 BSP) winner, in the 13:05 at Southwell and Jimmy Rabbitte, our 8/1 (11.72 BSP) winner, in the 14:30 at Thurles.

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