Morning News -30/10/2020

30th October 2020

6620418Good morning…

I do have to admit…

That I didn’t get as much done yesterday as I should have done.

From today we are on full lockdown so I spent yesterday relishing my last day of freedom.

Anyway, today I have no excuse so it’s back to work for me.

The hardest thing that I have to do is to more that backend code so that it points to a different database table..

One that contains far more details.

This will give us the ability to perform far more complex queries.

Read More about Morning News -30/10/2020


Morning News – 29/10/2020

29th October 2020

6620418Good morning…

Well…

It has happened.

From tomorrow, France is on full lockdown.

We are confined to home, allowed out only for essential shopping, exercise or medical visits.

We are not allowed more than 1km from home.

And, every time we go out, we have to download a form, tick the relevant boxes, sign and date it (and put in the time of our departure.)

Still, I guess that gives me no excuse for avoiding work.

Speaking of which…

I have finished the first part of the new Builder.

I now need to put in the back end code.

I hope to get that done today.

Then there’s just the bit on ensuring that the relevant database table gets updated daily.

So, the finish doesn’t actually seem too far away.

Read More about Morning News – 29/10/2020


Morning News – 28/10/2020

28th October 2020

6620418Good morning…

I got a fair bit of work done on the new Builder yesterday.

Whilst it looks very similar to the old one…

Underneath the surface, there are some fundamental differences.

Now, I want to get the front end finished today so,

If you have any other idea of metrics or filters that I should add,

Now would be a good time to suggest them.

At the moment, the front end isn’t connected to the back end and…

It only shows options for backing systems.

The new Builder can be seen here… Builder +

There will be a few differences to the old Builder;

The way that the statistics are calculated is different,

And you will no longer be able to share your systems.


On a different note,

It looks like France is going into lockdown again.

The President is due to make an announcement at 8pm this evening.

I’m not sure how that will affect the French horse racing.


On a totally different note…

James C. has shared with me the results of a weekend bet he had based upon the Early Bird Ratings…

Pretty impressive!

focus

focus

837 euros returned to a 2 euro stake.

Read More about Morning News – 28/10/2020


Morning News – 27/10/2020

27th October 2020

6620418Good morning…

Yesterday was more about planning than actually doing but…

I now have a pretty good strategy for doing the work on the new system builder.

I’m not sure how long it going to take but,

A lot of it will be copy and past from the existing Builder.

I am doing the first code commits today and should know more once they are done.

Read More about Morning News – 27/10/2020


Morning News – 26/10/2020

26th October 2020

6620418Good morning…

After a great day off…

Where absolutely nothing got done,

I am starting the week well rested and with some sort of structured plan.

Today I shall be re-visiting the new System Builder on Focus Ratings.

By getting this finished it will allow us the ability to test out ideas, not just on R4, as the current system builder does…

But on R5, R6 Advance Ratings, Early Bird Ratings and so on.

Read More about Morning News – 26/10/2020


Morning News – 25/10/2020

25th October 2020

6620418Good morning…

After a long day, yesterday…

I have pretty much caught up with my email backlog.

However, today is my day off so I guess I won’t be answering many emails today.

Though I will be going through my exercise book (the one that lists all current projects) to try to put them into some logical order.

Read More about Morning News – 25/10/2020


Morning News – 24/10/2020

24th October 2020

6620418Good morning…

Today I shall largely be catching up with emails.

It would be nice to think that I can start next week fully caught up.

That would be a great way to start the week.

I have just noticed that the Unibet Morgiana Hurdle (Punchestown – 15th November 2020) has just popped up on the Racing Post.

I shall be doing the Ante Post ratings for that race today.

I am still faffing around trying to do the ratings for the King George VI Chase but, with only 18 showing on the Betfair exchange and only 20 showing on the sportsbook, it is proving rather difficult.

Read More about Morning News – 24/10/2020


Morning News – 23/10/2020

23rd October 2020

6620418Good morning…

I do apologise for the slight lack of a Morning News yesterday.

I had a bad night and didn’t get much sleep.

Unfortunately, that meant that not much work got done yesterday.

However…

I’m back on form and raring to go today.

Read More about Morning News – 23/10/2020


Pick and Mix – what you get…

21st October 2020

The services that you are entitled to..

il_340x270.2562060142_jpskThere has been some confusion, recently, about what services members of the various service that I provide are entitled to.

As you know, during the 10 week period when we had no GB or IRE racing, I published some new sites so that we could carry on with Hong Kong racing and International Group, Graded and Listed races.

Although these are paid services, I decided to let Focus Ratings members (and members of my other services) access them for free.

Now some of my services have to always be paid only – this is generally when I am sharing the revenue with business partners; it would be rude of me to give access to those services away for free.

Below are the list of my services and lists of what other services that those members can access for free.

Below that list there are descriptions of the individual services.

Read More about Pick and Mix – what you get…


Morning News – 21/10/2020

21st October 2020

6620418Good morning…

I had a bit of struggle yesterday…

To try to create Ante Post ratings for the King George VI Chase.

I’m not so sure why I’ve got such a bee in my bonnet about this but,

It is one of the few horses races that I make a point of actually watching every year.

Place Profits

As far as Place Profits is concerned…

By adjusting the Forecast Price filter we seem to be getting better results but, of course, the prices will be very low.

And we will get fewer selections.

I have done some analysis of a really simple system that we may be able to use to supplement the current system.

Basically, if the horse has a Confidence of 200% and is running in a non-handicap race, it achieves a Place Win strike rate of 78.59% but,

And here’s the interesting bit,

At Place prices of 2.28 (that’s the highest price I’ve seen so far.)

There was a 6 month period back in 2019 when, for one reason or another, the BSP prices didn’t get loaded into my database.

Thus, today I shall largely be glued to Timeform manually adding those prices.

Read More about Morning News – 21/10/2020


Morning News – 20/10/2020

20th October 2020

6620418Good morning…

I’d like to thank those of you who have emailed to to comment on Place Profits.

I am becoming more and more convinced that a strategy where higher priced horses are used is a good way of complementing our current strategy.

I’ll take another look at that later on but…

This is going to be a shortish Morning News as I have to rush to get tomorrow’s Hong Kong ratings done and,

I’ve also got 3 French races to rate for today’s Spotlight Ratings.

Read More about Morning News – 20/10/2020


Morning News – 19/10/2020

19th October 2020

6620418Good morning…

I have finished the Ante Post Ratings for the Melbourne Cup and…

Am just starting to work on the King George IV stakes.

That one is going to be a bit difficult and will need to be updated at the end of next month.

However, I have also got 3 French races to compile the ratings for, for tomorrow’s Spotlight Ratings and they have to take priority.

If there are any interesting races coming up, over the next few months, that you want Ante Post Ratings for, just let me know.

I seem to have got into a rhythm where I getting things done but I may have to limit Spotlight Ratings to 20 races a week.

Obviously I already only look at Graded, Group and Listed races but we seem to do better in Japan and France so perhaps it’s best to concentrate on them to start with.

If there are foreign high quality races that you are interested in, just let me know and I’ll try to look out for them to compile ratings for.


I’ve been receiving a high number of emails from people asking me to add them to this service or that service.

But it has become apparent that a high number of people aren’t aware of what they are entitled to.

So, a major job for me today is to create a post which explains who gets what, how much it costs and what they get for free.

I’ll make it a sticky post so that it’ll show up on the front page of the website – just above that post where I waffle on about “Why a PMU ain’t your average Bookies Shop.”

I’ll email you all once that post has been created/published.


Place Profits

As you are aware, I have adjusted one of the four filters (you can see how I created the system here ) for Place Profits.

However, I would like to take a fresh look at the strategy.

I intend to do that in public.

So, we have the original strategy which worked fine for 2018 and 2019 and worked well in 2020 until the 23rd of March when GB (and IRE) racing shut down.

Since the resumption of GB and IRE racing the results haven’t been as expected.

I have adjusted one filter for the original system in order to revert us back to profits but..

I think that now is the time to take another look at Place Profits and see if we can come up with an even better strategy.

Read More about Morning News – 19/10/2020


Morning News – 18/10/2020

18th October 2020

6620418Good morning…

I spent a good part of the day, yesterday…

Working on Ante Post Ratings.

This will probably be a regular Saturday job as,

It makes sense to block out one day a week; that way it’s more likely that the ratings will get done.

And, also, you will know when to expect updates.

As a result, I now have AntePost Ratings for the following races…

Ladbrooks Champion Chase – Grade 1

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Athasi Stakes – Group 3

Tattersalls 2,000 Guineas – Group 1

Tattersalls 1,000 Guineas – Group 1

I am now working on the Melbourne Cup.

Fun, fun, fun – 65 entries, all of which have to be manually rated and, to top it all, I have to do the currency conversions from Australian dollars into GB sterling as well as the normal currency conversions from Euros into pounds.

I hope that the pocket calculator is up to it?


On a different point…

Now that I’ve applied the new filter to Place Profits, not only are the Place selections now profitable but…

You can actually make more money by backing those self same selections to win.

Now, I don’t want to come up with a hard, firm strategy for Place Profits.

Obviously I shall continue to publish the original strategy and selections and, also, the new refined strategy but…

From talking to many of you, I understand that some of you are using your own strategies based upon the basic set of selections.

From about Wednesday for next week, I shall be available on Skype/phone for an hour a day should you wish to discuss issues/strategies in a more direct way that can happen using email.

I’ll publish the number (and the time slots) sometime next week.

Read More about Morning News – 18/10/2020


Morning News – 17/10/2020

17th October 2020

6620418Good morning…

As I mentioned yesterday…

I have been doing some work on Place Profits.

Now, Place Profits is based on 2 years of data and, even with its ups and downs, actually makes a pretty decent profit over the long term.

But…

Since racing resumed in June of this year,

The profits just haven’t been there.

I expected a bad June and July (and I got what I expected) but…

Since then, the recovery, although apparent, isn’t as good as I would have liked.

Thus…

I spent 9 hours yesterday reviewing different filters in order to return Place Profits to profit.

Eventually I determining that, under the current circumstances, a change to the maximum forecast SP from 6.0 to less that 3.0 does the trick.

So, from today I shall be showing the Place Profits selections as per normal but also, the selections using the above filter; I shall call those selections Place Profits Refined.

Once a month I shall check the profitability for both sets of selections; it may be that the original set of filters comes back into profitability and, thus, the need for the Refined selections reduces.

Read More about Morning News – 17/10/2020


Morning News – 16/10/2020

16th October 2020

6620418Good morning…

Today I shall be largely working on Place Profits.

When I launched Place Profits in February of this year it was a cast iron system which gave a more than decent return on stakes as long as the previous 2 years strike rate of 80% was upheld.

However, this year has been an incredibly difficult year for systematic approaches to horse racing selections.

The 10 weeks of no racing have really changed the structure of our races.

This has affected the results for Place Profits.

Today I shall be looking at additional filters to return Place Profits to its rightful place as a decent, long term, profitable long term strategy.

I will, additionally, be looking at the possibility of splitting the stake so that 80% goes on the place bet and 20% goes on a win bet…

Or, perhaps, it should be a 70%/30% split?

Whatever I come up with today…

I shall return Place Profits to long term profitability.

At this point I should also mention Early Bird Ratings and its built in Diamonds and Gold system.

From yesterday evening I am not publishing the Diamonds selections; only the Diamonds and Gold selections.

In September 2020 we had 79 selections.

Of those, 17 were Diamonds selections and 62 were Diamonds and Gold selections.

From the Diamonds selections we got 4 winners from the 17 selections…

That equates to a strike rate of 23.53%

From the 62 Diamonds and Gold selections we got 25 winners.

That equates to a strike rate of 40.32%

Thus, I shall only be publishing (and proofing) the Diamonds and Gold selections from now on.

Any systematic approach to horse racing can vary over time.

What worked last year may work less well this year.

When we face a totally different year, in terms of horse racing, due to Covid 19 and all the related restrictions…

It doesn’t hurt to re-visit any systems and try to improve them in order to take recent events into account.

I will make Place Profits profitable again and…

I will make Early Bird Ratings Diamonds and Gold even more profitable.

On a personal note…

It has now been 8 whole days since I’ve had any coffee or wine.

It seems like 8 years!

Actually, I’m missing caffeine more than alcohol.

I am about to chew my fingers off!

Am really starting to miss Wine O’Clock as well.

I’m not really sure that my doctor knows what he’s talking about?

On a positive angle….

I am actually sleeping longer.

I’m not too sure that I’m sleeping better but,

Without my morning caffeine infusion,

I’m still feeling very tired.

I do have to say that I’m actually getting far more work done so…

It can’t be all bad.

Read More about Morning News – 16/10/2020