Morning News

focus-ratings-mornoing news Good morning...

The two French races that I highlighted yesterday...

I’ll be using Longchamps – 12:25 – Prix de la Grotte – Group 3 – 8 furlongs – £23,729 and Longchamps – 13:05 – Prix d’Harcourt – Group 2 – 10 furlongs – £43,475 as my examples.

Both worked out OK for us.

Further down this post I shall try to explain how I pick which French races to rate for me personally to bet upon and...

How I place those bets.

However, I have decided that, as I do this for my own purposes (although I am more than happy to share them with you) I shall only be rating the graded/group/listed races from
now on.

Yesterday was a bit of an issue as all the races have very large fields (and, thus, take longer to rate) and, to be honest, none of the races slightly interested me. Add to that the fact that I can now freely go out for a long walk, it was kind of difficult being tied to my desk.

Hong Kong Ratings

The link to the ratings (top 3 rated) for tomorrow's meeting at Happy Valley is here.... http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-2020-05-13.pdf

The link to the ratings (all horses) for tomorrow's meeting at Happy Valley is here.... http://compassratings.com/data/compassratings-full-2020-05-13.pdf

French Ratings

The link to the ratings for 4 races at Saint Cloud today is... http://focusratings.com/french/FrenchRatings-2020-05-12.pdf

There is one Group 3 race at Chantilly tomorrow (the 1:12) and I shall be rating that race.

How I rate and bet on French races...

Now, I have to say that, although I have strict rules that I adhere to, there is a bit of gut instinct when I choose the actual races that I want to bet on. As a result I only get about 3 or 4 races a week to use.

1). I only rate Group/Graded/Listed races.

2). I use the Racing Post as my data source.

3). Before rating a race I check the RPR column on the Racing Post. Now, whilst I don't put much value on RPR (it was good until they changed it in February 2012) - I need every horse to actually have an RPR; if the Racing Post can't rate a horse then I sure as hell won't be able to.

4). Once I have rated a race I check to ensure that I have rated every horse in that race. As you can see from the screenshot below, the 2 races that I highlighted yesterday fell into this category.

I have been able to rate every horse in both of those races.

5). Then, for those races that I meet the above criteria, I take a closer look.

I don't do what most sensible people would do...

Most sensible people would check who the trainer is, who the jockey is, the horse's form, the number of days since last run and all those good metrics.

I implicitly trust my ratings and I have found, from experience, that if you are going to put your own hard earned cash on a bet, you really need to be able to resist the temptation to second guess yourself.

I check the provenance of each horse; if one of the top three rated horses is GB or Irish born then that puts a smile on my face; I am convinced that British born (and, to a lesser extent, Irish born) horses are under bet in France. This means that, should my ratings run true, I will get value for those horses.

I then check the forecast price at the PMU French website; this doesn't really affect my betting decision but it does somehow help me work out my stakes.

Finally, I look at the shape of the race (as far as the ratings are concerned.)

As you can see from the screenshot of the first race that I highlighted yesterday, the top three rated horses (in terms of ratings but, also, horse value) are a far way away from the other 7 runners. The top rated horse has a rating of about twice that of the second rated horse. This makes that horse look like a clear winner and, if the ratings are right, the 2nd and 3rd rated horses should place.

In the second race that I highlighted yesterday the top two rated horses are a mile away from the other 7 runners. This indicates to me that the race will be won by one of those two horses.

Yesterday there were other Listed/Group/Graded races where I could rate every horse but, the shape of the ratings for those races didn't appeal to me. I am happier have just 3 or 4 bets a week but, at the same time, have a fairly high confidence in the ratings for those races.

How I stake my bets

In France you have to bet in multiples of 1.50 euros.

I didn't bet on those races yesterday as my local PMU is closed on a Monday but, typically I would have done the following bets...

For the 12:25...

1). Top rated horse - 6 euros to win.
2). Second rated horse - 3 euros to win.
3). Third rated horse - 1.50 euros to win.

4). Top rated horse - 6 euros to place.
5). Second rated horse - 3 euros to place.
6). Third rated horse - 1.50 euros to place.

7). Top rated horse to win and second rated horse to come second - 1.5 euros
8). Top rated horse to win and third rated horse to come second - 1.5 euros
9). Second rated horse to win and third rated horse to come second - 1.5 euros

10). Top rated horse and second rated horse to win and/or come second in either order - 1.5 euros
11). Top rated horse and third rated horse to win and/or come second in either order - 1.5 euros
12). Second rated horse and third rated horse to win and/or come second in either order - 1.5 euros

13). Top three rated horse to come first, second and third in the right order - 1.50 euros
14). Top three rated horse to come first, second and third in any order - 1.50 euros

For the 13:05...

1). Top rated horse - 6 euros to win.
2). Second rated horse - 3 euros to win.

3). Top rated horse - 6 euros to place.
4). Second rated horse - 3 euros to place.

5). Top rated horse to win and second rated horse to come second - 1.5 euros
6). Second rated horse to win and top rated horse to come second - 1.5 euros

7). Top rated horse and second rated horse to win and/or come second in either order - 1.5 euros

Generally I need a win and a place from the top three rated horses for me to make a profit.

Now, the actual amount that I bet does vary. I do actually have a betting bank (it's a wooden box on my mantelpiece) and my stakes do vary according to how full that is. It is also my pocket money box so, if the sun is shining and there are people in the market square (and we don't have lockdown - and, thus, the bars are open) it can be quite tempting to sneak a few euros from my betting bank box and pop out for a beer on the terrace.

If any of the top rated horses were born in GB or Ireland (I didn't check as I wasn't betting yesterday) I might increase the stake on that horse.

I don't always have time to produce the ratings but I'm quite happy with my 3 or 4 races a week to bet on.

I don't keep records of my bets - I know that I should do and am actually working on a website to allow me to do this in a professional way (PaperTradeit.com - it's not finished so please don't sign up - even for the free option - as I will almost certainly empty the database prior to launching it and, thus, you'll lose your data.)

For me, my French betting is a bit of fun and a validation of my ratings.

I do have to say that the wooden box on my mantelpiece is getting fuller and fuller but...

That might have something to do with the fact that, due to lockdown, the bars are closed and the terraces outside them are empty.

I hope that this has explained my, slightly weird, way of betting on French races - I see it as betting on the race rather than betting on the horse.

Something to make you smile...

Cab Driver's First Day...

The passenger tapped the cab driver on the shoulder to ask him something.

The driver screamed, lost control of the car, nearly hit a bus, went up on the sidewalk, and stopped
centimetres from a shop window.

For a second everything went quiet in the cab, then the driver said, "Look mister, don't ever do that again. You scared the daylights out of me!"

The passenger apologized and said he didn't realize that a little tap could scare him so much.

The driver replied, "You're right. I'm sorry, it's not really your fault. Today is my first day as a cab driver. I've been driving a hearse for the last 25 years".