Good morning...
I have been doing some work on trying to filter the Compass Ratings selections to see if a more systematic approach can be created to better profit from them.
As I mentioned yesterday, one member bet on the 4 races on Sunday where the CPR (Compass Rating) of the top rated horse was 2.0 or more.
3 of those 4 horses won.
Another Place Profits member mentioned that, if you bet on any top rated horse with a CPR of 2.0 or more in races where no other horse has a CPR of 2.0 or more, then you get a 100% strike rate.
He must have spent hours going through the spreadsheet determining that.
Andy C. If you're ever in my part of back of beyond Brittany, I'll buy you a beer (or two!)
Personally, I think that Confidence (the percentage difference between the CPR of the top rated horse and that of the second rated horse) is going to play a major part - that's what I'll be working on today.
I have looked at the performance of the top rated horse dependent on its CPR.
Click on the image to see it full size.
The screenshot clearly shows that those horses which have a CPR of 2.1 (the CPRs shown are rounded up) or better are the ones to look at.
There is one such race today, the 13:45 where Fortune Happiness has a CPR of 2.18
More importantly to me, the second rated horse has a CPR of 1.69 which means that Fortune Happiness has a confidence of 129%.
I have created the ratings for tomorrow's races at Sha Tin; the links are below....
Compass Ratings (top three horses) in PDF format.
Compass Ratings (all horses) in PDF format.
Something to make you smile...
Murphy's Technology Laws
You can never tell which way the train went by looking at the track.
Logic is a systematic method of coming to the wrong conclusion with confidence.
Whenever a system becomes completely defined, some damn fool discovers something which either abolishes the system or expands it beyond recognition.
Technology is dominated by those who manage what they do not understand.
If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker that came along would destroy civilization.
The opulence of the front office decor varies inversely with the fundamental solvency of the firm.
The attention span of a computer is only as long as it electrical cord.
An expert is one who knows more and more about less and less until he knows absolutely everything about nothing.
Tell a man there are 300 billion stars in the universe and he'll believe you. Tell him a bench has wet paint on it and he'll have to touch to be sure.
All great discoveries are made by mistake.
Always draw your curves, then plot your reading.
Nothing ever gets built on schedule or within budget.
All's well that ends.
A meeting is an event at which the minutes are kept and the hours are lost.
The first myth of management is that it exists.
A failure will not appear till a unit has passed final inspection.
New systems generate new problems.
To err is human, but to really foul things up requires a computer.
We don't know one millionth of one percent about anything.
Any given program, when running, is obsolete.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
A computer makes as many mistakes in two seconds as 20 men working 20 years make.
The faster a computer is, the faster it will reach a crashed state.
Nothing motivates a man more than to see his boss putting in an honest day's work.
Some people manage by the book, even though they don't know who wrote the book or even what book.
The primary function of the design engineer is to make things difficult for the fabricator and impossible for the serviceman.
To spot the expert, pick the one who predicts the job will take the longest and cost the most.
After all is said and done, a hell of a lot more is said than done.
Any circuit design must contain at least one part which is obsolete, two parts which are unobtainable and three parts which are still under development.
A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that works.
If mathematically you end up with the incorrect answer, try multiplying by the page number.
Computers are unreliable, but humans are even more unreliable. Any system which depends on human reliability is unreliable.
Give all orders verbally. Never write anything down that might go into a "Pearl Harbor File."
Under the most rigorously controlled conditions of pressure, temperature, volume, humidity, and other variables the organism will do as it damn well pleases.
If you can't understand it, it is intuitively obvious.
The more cordial the buyer's secretary, the greater the odds that the competition already has the order.
In designing any type of construction, no overall dimension can be totaled correctly after 4:30 p.m. on Friday. The correct total will become self-evident at 8:15 a.m. on Monday.
Fill what's empty. Empty what's full. And scratch where it itches.
All things are possible except skiing through a revolving door.
The only perfect science is hind-sight.
Work smarder and not harder and be careful of yor speling.
If it's not in the computer, it doesn't exist.
If an experiment works, something has gone wrong.
When all else fails, read the instructions.
If there is a possibility of several things going wrong the one that will cause the most damage will be the one to go wrong.
Everything that goes up must come down.
Any instrument when dropped will roll into the least accessible corner.
Any simple theory will be worded in the most complicated way.
Build a system that even a fool can use and only a fool will want to use it.
The degree of technical competence is inversely proportional to the level of management.
Any attempt to print Murphy's laws will jam the printer.
Why Some Men Have Dogs And Not Wives
1. The later you are, the more excited your dogs are to see you.
2. Dogs don't notice if you call them by another dog's name.
3. Dogs like it if you leave a lot of things on the floor.
4. A dog's parents never visit.
5. Dogs agree that you have to raise your voice to get your point across.
6. You never have to wait for a dog; they're ready to go 24 hours a day.
7. Dogs find you amusing when you're drunk.
8. Dogs like to go hunting and fishing.
9. A dog will not wake you up at night to ask, If I died, would you get
another dog??10. If a dog has babies, you can put an ad in the paper and give them away.
11. A dog will let you put a studded collar on it without calling you a
pervert.12. If a dog smells another dog on you, they don't get mad. They just think it's interesting..
13. Dogs like to ride in the back of a pickup truck.
And last, but not least:
14. If a dog leaves, it won't take half of your stuff.
Today
Stay safe and healthy in these uncertain times.
As always...
My kindest regards
