Good morning...
I spent much of yesterday looking at those horses that are top on Focus Ratings (R4) and also top on Advance Ratings but...
From a Win Backing point of view.
You can check the spreadsheet which is available at... http://focusratings.com/docs/GB_master_win01.xlsx
1). The first tab shows all top rated (on both, independent ratings.)
Well, almost; I have only used those races where there are 5 runners or more. This makes sense for Place Betting but, for Win Backing, the prices paid for the smaller field races don't, in my opinion, outweigh the risks.
I have also removed those horses that didn't finish their last race.
There is no scientific reason for this but, by doing so, the overall strike rate improves.
I can't find any evidence that a horse that fell in its last race in going to fall in the next race (or pull up or run off) but...
I do get the feeling that they are raced less hard than they would have been had they finished their last race.
2). The second tab shows the performance for individual race types.
3). The third tab shows the same data but I have removed the unprofitable race types. Doing this gives a 32.77% strike rate and a 6.72% POI (to BSP with 2% conmission removed) and an average of 7.2 races a day.
However, if you scroll down you will see that I have refined these races types to give 2,7 races a day with a strike rate of 36.56% and a POI of 14.63%. Scroll even further down and you;ll see that I have further refined the race type to give us 5 races a week but with a strike rate of 41.35% and a POI of 30.48%
4). The next three tabs do exactly the same thing but only for those races where the top rated horse has a Confidence of 130% or higher.
The last two tabs show what happens if you include Class as a differentiator.
As you will see, using these selections, it is relatively easy to come up with profitable systems.
Today I shall write the code to generate a PDF (on a daily basis) showing those horses that are top rated on both Focus Ratings (R4) and Advance Ratings.
Focus Ratings
Yesterday's Results
Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results
Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 20.83%.
Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 17.86%.
Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 21.43% from all 28 Races (including previously unrated races.)
The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 50.39 units returned to 75 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -32.81%
Top Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the top rated horses from 24 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 19 units returned to 24 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -20.83%
2nd Rated Horse - There were 3 winners from the second rated horses from 25 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 9.53 units returned to 25 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -61.88%
3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 26 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 21.86 units returned to 26 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -15.92%
Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 7 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 1 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 14.29%
Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 2.5 units returned to 7 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -64.29%
Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 7 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 6 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 85.71%
Forecasts
There was 1 forecast yesterday.
Taunton 12:35:00 - The CSF paid £4.40
Investment Betting
There were four Investment Betting selections yesterday...
Market Rasen - 12:45 - Away At Dawn - 4th
Taunton - 13:05 - Cant Stop Now - F
Taunton - 14:40 - Talking About You - 1st @ 3.0 ISP (3.17 BSP)
Limerick - 15:35 - Fourneux Disanka - NR
EarlyBird Ratings
There were three Diamonds and Gold selections yesterday...
Market Rasen - 12:45 - Away At Dawn - 4th
Taunton - 14:40 - Talking About You - 1st @ 3.0 ISP (3.17 BSP)
Taunton - 15:50 - Millbank Flyer - PU
Focus Ratings members can subscribe to these selections for free,
Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.
The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.
PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.
You can see the independently proofed results for the EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections here... https://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/proofed/ebr-diamondsandgold.html
Compass Ratings
Compass Ratings supplies horse racing ratings for the two meeting a week at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.
There is a meeting at Sha Tin on Friday.
I will be compiling the ratings for those this afternoon.
Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Compass Ratings for free.
Just email me and I'll set up your account.
Advance Ratings
Advance Ratings had a great yesterday.
12.35 - Taunton - Chinwag - 1st @ 2.25 ISP (2.26 BSP)
12.45 - Market Rasen - Away At Dawn - 4th
1.55 - Limerick - Staker Wallace - 1st @ 1.57 ISP (1.74 BSP)
2.40 - Taunton - Talking About You - 1st @ 3.0 ISP (3.17 BSP)
2.50 - Market Rasen - Barnay - 2nd
3.50 - Taunton - Rod's Dream - 9th
Spotlight Ratings
Spotlight Ratings are ratings for International Graded, Group and Listed races.
Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.
Just email me and I'll set up your account.
Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.
Ante Post Ratings
Ante Post Ratings supplies advance ratings for top grade UK and Irish racing.
Currently Listed...
31st October 2020 – Down Royal (IRE) – 14:25 – Ladbrooks Champion Chase – Grade 1
1st November 2020 – Naas (IRE) – 14:35 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Athasi Stakes – Group 3
3rd November 2020 – Flemmington (AUS) – 16:00 – Lexus Melbourne Cup – Group 1
22nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 19:15 – Tattersalls 2,000 Guineas – Group 1
23nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 16:00 – Tattersalls 1,000 Guineas – Group 1
Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.
Just email me and I'll set up your account.
Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.
There were no selections yesterday.
We have had 20 successful (winning) selections from the last 22 over the last exact month.
I have updated the results and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.
The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/
Intelligent Betting
Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.
A number of systems are combined to create system selections.
Click on the image to see it full size.
Something to make you smile...
18 year old Italian girl...
An eighteen-year-old Italian girl tells her mom that she has missed her period for two months.
Very worried, the mother goes to the drugstore and buys a pregnancy kit.
The test result shows that the girl is pregnant.
Shouting, cursing, crying, the mother says, "Who was the pig that did this to you? I want to know!"
The girl picks up the phone and makes call.
Half an hour later a Ferrari stops in front of their house; a mature and distinguished Englishman with gray hair and impeccably dressed in a very expensive suit steps out of it and enters the house.
He sits in the living room with the father, the mother and the girl, and tells them: "Good morning, your daughter has informed me of the problem. However, I can't marry her because of my personal family situation, but I'll take charge.
"If a girl is born I will bequeath her 2 retail stores, a townhouse, beach villa and a $1,000,000 bank account."
"If a boy is born, my legacy will be a couple of factories and $2,000,000 bank account."
"If it is twins, a factory and $1,000,000 each. However, if there is a miscarriage..."
At this point, the father, who had remained silent, places a hand firmly on the man's shoulder and tells him, "You'll have sex with her again!"
Today
Whatever you are up to today...
Stay safe and healthy.
As always...
My kindest regards
