Good morning...
I wish that I could say that I had a nice weekend off but...
Although I had a nice weekend,
I was working rather hard.
I have been doing more work on the theory that when the 3rd rated horse is far lower rated than the top 2 rated horses, there is a far higher propensity for the top rated horse to win or to be placed.
Based upon this strategy...
I have come up with 2 competing new strategies for Place Profits.
Today I shall look at merging these 2 strategies to come up with a super strategy.
The first strategy relies on the 3rd rated horse to be rated at least 25% lower than the 2nd rated horse and, also, for the top rated horse to be my forecast favourite.
Using this strategy, in December (so far) we have had 22 selections of which 20 won (or were placed in other words.)
This equates to a 90.91% strike rate.
During that period, a profit of 17.93% on the bank was achieved.
Now, although December 2020 looks good, there is a bit of a black hole in June and July of this year.
Going back to the 1st of Jan 2017, although there are some peaks and troughs, the strategy seems to be consistently profitable.
The second strategy relies on the top rated horse (rated by R4) to also be the top rated horse on Advance Ratings.
Now, these two ratings agencies rate horses in totally different ways; my theory is that, if a horse is top rated by 2 totally independent ratings, it is likely to win or be placed.
Because this strategy doesn't rely on the top rated horse to be the forecast favourite, we get higher prices but, at the risk of a slightly lower strike rate.
Although this system only just broke even for place betting during December, it did achieve an 84.42% profit on the bank for win betting the selections.
Today my work will be to see if there is a happy medium between the two strategies.
I will keep you updated.
Focus Ratings
Yesterday's Results
Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results
Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 27.78%.
Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 26.32%.
Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 25% from all 20 Races (including previously unrated races.)
The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 34.78 units returned to 54 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -35.59%
Top Rated Horse - There were 5 winners from the top rated horses from 18 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 14.45 units returned to 18 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -19.72%
2nd Rated Horse - There were 1 winners from the second rated horses from 18 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 6.5 units returned to 18 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -63.89%
3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 18 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 13.83 units returned to 18 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -23.17%
Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 5 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 2 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 40%
Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 4.29 units returned to 5 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, -14.2%
Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 5 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 5 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 100%
Forecasts
There were 2 forecasts yesterday.
Southwell (AW) 14:45:00 - The CSF paid £3.60
Southwell (AW) 15:15:00 - The CSF paid £4.85
Investment Betting
There were two Investment Betting selections yesterday...
Thurles - 12:30 - Escaria Ten - 1st @ 2.20 ISP (2.34 BSP)
Thurles - 14:00 - Sayce Gold - 7th
EarlyBird Ratings
There were two Diamonds and Gold selections yesterday...
Thurles - 14:00 - Anna Bunina - 5th
Thurles - 15:00 - Frontal Assault - 1st @ 3.0 ISP (3.39 BSP)
Focus Ratings members can subscribe to these selections for free,
Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.
The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.
PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.
You can see the independently proofed results for the EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections here... https://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/proofed/ebr-diamondsandgold.html
Compass Ratings
Compass Ratings supplies horse racing ratings for the two meeting a week at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.
There is a meeting at Happy Valley on Wednesday.
I will be compiling the ratings for those this afternoon.
Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Compass Ratings for free.
Just email me and I'll set up your account.
Advance Ratings
Advance Ratings had a reasonable yesterday.
2.00 - Thurles - Sayce Gold - 7th
3.00 - Thurles - Born Patriot - 2nd
Win 10 minsp= maxsp= sptype=SP
Spotlight Ratings
Win 10 minsp= maxsp= sptype=SP
Spotlight Ratings are ratings for International Graded, Group and Listed races.
Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.
Just email me and I'll set up your account.
Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.
Ante Post Ratings
Ante Post Ratings supplies advance ratings for top grade UK and Irish racing.
Currently Listed...
31st October 2020 – Down Royal (IRE) – 14:25 – Ladbrooks Champion Chase – Grade 1
1st November 2020 – Naas (IRE) – 14:35 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Athasi Stakes – Group 3
3rd November 2020 – Flemmington (AUS) – 16:00 – Lexus Melbourne Cup – Group 1
22nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 19:15 – Tattersalls 2,000 Guineas – Group 1
23nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 16:00 – Tattersalls 1,000 Guineas – Group 1
Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.
Just email me and I'll set up your account.
Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.
Place Profits
Standard System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)
There are no selections today.
Standard System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)
There are no selections today.
New System
There are no selections today.
I have updated the results and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.
The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/
Intelligent Betting
Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.
A number of systems are combined to create system selections.
Click on the image to see it full size.
Something to make you smile...
George's Two Assholes...
A man died in a horrible fire.
The mortician thought it was George, but the body was so badly burned that somebody would need to make a positive identification.
That task fell to George's two friends, Joe and Al.
Joe: "He's burnt pretty bad, all right. Roll him over."
Joe looked at the dead man's buttocks and said, "Nope, that ain't George."
Thinking the incident strange, the mortician straightened up the body and said nothing.
He brought in Al.
Al: "Wow, he's burnt to a crisp. Roll him over."
Again, "Nope, that ain't George."
Mortician: "How can you tell?"
Al: "George had two assholes."
Mortician: "What? How could he have two assholes?"
Al: "Everybody knew George had two assholes. Whenever the three of us would go into town you'd hear people say, "Here comes George with those two assholes!"
Today
Whatever you are up to today...
Stay safe and healthy.
As always...
My kindest regards
