Good morning...
Well...
Yesterday I got a lot of work done on looking at the results for the top rated horse when the 3rd rated horse has a low confidence,
In other words, is far lower rated than the top two rated horses.
I'm seeing some interesting things but still have a lot more work to do.
In a way, by doing this, it sort of reduces a 10 horse race to a 2 horse race and, as a result, even with no other filtering, you end up with a 50% probability of the win for the top rated horse.
Focus Ratings
Yesterday's Results
Here are the results in the Traffic Light Results PDF format... Yesterday's Traffic Light Results
Yesterday's Results, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 33.33%.
Yesterday's Live Ratings, show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 31.43%.
Yesterday's - Link to Follow - results for All Races (including previously unrated races), show a strike rate (for our top rated horse) of 29.73% from all 37 Races (including previously unrated races.)
The Overall Profit Index. If you had blindly backed every top three rated horse in all of the races you would have had 64.52 units returned to 93 units staked. The Overall Profit Index was, thus, -30.62%
Top Rated Horse - There were 11 winners from the top rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 30.19 units returned to 33 units staked. The Top Rated Profit Index was, thus, -8.52%
2nd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the second rated horses from 33 Races. If you had blindly backed the 2nd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 11.08 units returned to 33 units staked. The 2nd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -66.42%
3rd Rated Horse - There were 4 winners from the third rated horses from 27 Races. If you had blindly backed the 3rd rated horse in all of the races you would have had 23.25 units returned to 27 units staked. The 3rd Rated Profit Index was, thus, -13.89%
Non Handicap Races - Top Rated Horse - There were 14 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 7 Top Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for Top Rated Horses) was 50%
Top Rated Horse - If you had blindly backed the top rated horse in all of the races you would have had 20.49 units returned to 14 units staked. The Top Rated Non-Handicap Profit Index was, thus, 46.36%
Non Handicap Races - Top Three Rated Horses - There were 14 non-handicap races yesterday. From these races there were 10 Top Three Rated winners. Thus, the Strike Rate (for the Top Three Rated Horses) was 71.43%
Forecasts
There was 1 forecast yesterday.
Southwell (AW) 16:35:00 - The CSF paid £7.13
Trifectas
There was 1 tricast/trifecta yesterday.
Southwell (AW) 16:35:00 - The Trifecta paid £32.60
Investment Betting
There were four Investment Betting selections yesterday...
Exeter - 12:35 - Coquelicot - 3rd
Exeter - 13:35 - Vienna Court - UR
Down Royal - 13:45 - Whereyounow - 6th
Exeter - 15:50 - Darksideoftarnside - NR
EarlyBird Ratings
There four Diamonds and Gold selections yesterday...
Exeter - 12:35 - Coquelicot - 3rd
Hereford - 12:55 - Everything Now - 2nd
Down Royal - 14:55 - Rewritetherules - 6th
Exeter - 15:50 - Another Frontier - 5th
Focus Ratings members can subscribe to these selections for free,
Just send me a mail and I'll set it up.
The selections normally come out about 5:30pm the evening before the day of the race.
PlaceProfits.com members - if you wish to receive the EarlyBird Ratings Diamond and Gold selections until the racing settles down and we start getting Place Profits selections again, just email me and I'll put you on the list.
You can see the independently proofed results for the EarlyBird Ratings Diamonds and Gold selections here... https://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/proofed/ebr-diamondsandgold.html
Compass Ratings
Compass Ratings supplies horse racing ratings for the two meeting a week at Happy Valley and Sha Tin.
There is a meeting at Sha Tin on Sunday.
I will be compiling the ratings for those this afternoon.
Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Compass Ratings for free.
Just email me and I'll set up your account.
Advance Ratings
Advance Ratings had a reasonable yesterday.
12.35 - Exeter - Coquelicot - 3rd
12.55 - Hereford - Wigglesworth - 4th
1.35 - Exeter - Vienna Court - UR
3.05 - Hereford - Sexy Lot - 2nd
3.30 - Down Royal - Enniskerry - 4th
3.40 - Hereford - Miss Gold Den - 5th
Spotlight Ratings
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Spotlight Ratings are ratings for International Graded, Group and Listed races.
Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.
Just email me and I'll set up your account.
Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.
Ante Post Ratings
Ante Post Ratings supplies advance ratings for top grade UK and Irish racing.
Currently Listed...
31st October 2020 – Down Royal (IRE) – 14:25 – Ladbrooks Champion Chase – Grade 1
1st November 2020 – Naas (IRE) – 14:35 – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Athasi Stakes – Group 3
3rd November 2020 – Flemmington (AUS) – 16:00 – Lexus Melbourne Cup – Group 1
22nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 19:15 – Tattersalls 2,000 Guineas – Group 1
23nd May 2021 – Curragh (IRE) – 16:00 – Tattersalls 1,000 Guineas – Group 1
Focus Ratings, EarlyBird Ratings and Place Profits members can subscribe to Spotlight Ratings for free.
Just email me and I'll set up your account.
Please let me know which service you currently subscribe to.
Place Profits
Standard System (without the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)
Southwell - 14:50 - Passional - 1st @ 1.09
Down Royal - 14:55 - Billaway - 1st @ 1.27
Chelmsford - 16:20 - The Attorney - 1st @ 1.06
Chelmsford - 18:00 - Kondo Isami - 1st @ 2.18
Standard System (with the recent refinement to improve Strike Rate.)
Chelmsford - 16:20 - The Attorney - 1st @ 1.06
New System
Southwell - 14:50 - Passional - 1st @ 1.09
I have updated the results and, from now on, be updating them on a daily basis and, thus, be keeping it up to date.
The recent results be seen here... http://placeprofits.com/results/
Intelligent Betting
Intelligent Betting is a collection of tools designed to aid your horse racing betting process.
A number of systems are combined to create system selections.
Click on the image to see it full size.
Something to make you smile...
5 things women will never understand...
Men are a misunderstood lot, which all in all is probably for the best.
Women are better off not knowing that we eat with our hands the minute they leave the room or that we use their nail clippers to trim our nose hair.
Better for them, better for us.
Still, it's annoying that women spend more time and money trying to understand the minds of cats than they do wondering about what makes men tick.
Which is why they'll never understand...
Our consuming need to own the biggest and most expensive version of just about everything.
Our compulsive desire to drive off-road vehicles in cities and use corkscrews that resemble offshore drilling equipment is well documented. As marketing targets, men are suckers for terms like "professional" or "industrial strength," because inside every man is the germ of every profession he ever imagined himself one day excelling at. Most of these purchases are harmless, little more than childish wish fulfillment played out at a higher testosterone level. But occasionally we go too far. The guy upstairs from me once boasted that he had a filter which filled his flat with "operating theater quality air." I kept him away from my surgical steel steak knives.
Why we are so bad at shopping.
We've never been trained to do it the right way. Supermarkets are like giant booby traps for males -- which is why if you send a man out to get eggs, sugar and bread, you should not be surprised if he returns home with a case of beer, a pair of jeans and a tree.
The reason why we don't like to discuss The Relationship.
Most of us will find any excuse to dodge those conversations that start with questions like "Are you really happy?" and "Where do you see us going?" A relationship is a delicate thing, like an antique clock, and we know what will happen if we start picking it apart. Often our reticence will result in a lengthy conversation about why we have trouble talking about... "The Relationship."
Why we think we can fix things.
Almost all men believe they can repair virtually anything with a little patience. In reality, we're only half right. Men are extremely good at taking things apart: whether it's a dishwasher or an antique clock, a man can break it down to its most basic components in no time. Unfortunately, this is where our expertise usually leaves off, and we're mostly satisfied with leaving bits and pieces spread all over newspaper on the kitchen table.
Men and video games.
Women cannot understand how grown men can waste huge chunks of their lives zapping things off a screen. When a man repeatedly rings his girlfriend to say he has to work late and routinely comes home at two in the morning all glassy eyed, she will usually take this as evidence of an affair -- when it's more likely that a pirated copy of Streetfighter II is making the rounds at the office.
Today
Whatever you are up to today...
Stay safe and healthy.
As always...
My kindest regards
